Most Likely Track and Impacts

After reviewing the latest data, we’ve narrowed the forecast down to one track.

It looks like Sandy has her eyes on the New Jersey coast and although the center is not expected to pass into Connecticut, that does not mean we are out of the woods.

Details:
Some of the new computer models on Saturday have come into better agreement with track that takes the center of Sandy somewhere into New Jersey. There is no possibility that Sandy will track out to sea and with the storm chugging to the northeast, it is becoming LESS lately that the storm will take a sharp turn west and move into the Delmarva area.

Impacts:
This forecast track will push some of the stormiest conditions into Connecticut.
With the northeast quadrant of Sandy expected to move into the state, that will mean very strong winds can be expected. Tropical Storm-force winds could gust as high as 60 mph inland, but dangerous Hurricane-force gusts up to 80 mph are possible along the shoreline.
As far as rain goes, the heaviest of the rain will likely miss Connecticut. However, bands of convective rain are still expected, with heavier rainfall totals occurring across western portions of the state.
Flooding is not as big of a concern inland is it is along the shoreline.
Coastal flooding will be moderate to severe across the entire shoreline. The combination of strong SE to E winds pushing water into the Sound and an astronomical high tide may cause a storm surge of 4 to 8 feet. This means that the water level will rise 4 to 8 feet above its normal level. The result means low-lying areas are at risk to go underwater.

Time-table:
The rest of today is dry and tomorrow should stay rain-free as well.
*Winds will increase and become breezy, but not damaging by Sunday night.
*An above normal high tide may cause MINOR flooding overnight Sunday into early Monday.
*Rain moves in Monday morning and then the winds should pick up.
*The worst weather is expected from late morning Monday into Monday night as strong, damaging winds will cause trees and power lines to come down. Also, the high tides on Monday are expected to be way above normal. That is when the coastal flooding and storm surge will get worse.
*The rain tapers off to scattered showers Monday night, but gusty winds will linger.
*Residual coastal flooding is expected into Tuesday as the storm sits and spins, keeping gusty winds around the area.

Stay tuned to WXedge.com as we will be posting specific information on what to expect from the storm.

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