Marginal Tornado Threat

mcd1030 Marginal Tornado Threat
From the Storm Prediction Center:
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0307 PM CDT TUE JUN 11 2013

AREAS AFFECTED…SRN MA…RI…ERN CT

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 112007Z – 112100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…5 PERCENT

SUMMARY…A MARGINAL/LOCALIZED THREAT FOR STRONG-SVR WIND GUSTS…AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO…MAY EXIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER…A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION…VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW AREA OF CLEARING ACROSS FAR SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON…WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED INTO THE MID-70S F. A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WAS ALSO OBSERVED LIFTING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS SRN CT/RI. SEVERAL SHOWERS/LOW-TOPPED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN A RIBBON OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY IS FAIRLY WEAK…ONE PERSISTENT TSTM HAS BECOME ANCHORED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL CT AND HAS EXHIBITED OCCASIONAL WEAK LOW-LEVEL ROTATION. A LOCALIZED/MARGINAL THREAT FOR A STRONG-SVR WIND GUST OR TWO…AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO…MAY EXIST INVOF THE BOUNDARY GIVEN MODERATELY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND E-NELY SFC WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY. HOWEVER…A MORE SIGNIFICANT/WIDESPREAD THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY WEAK INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE.

..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 06/11/2013

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