The tropical Atlantic basin has been relatively quiet as of late, but are there are any signs of tropical activity increasing in the coming weeks?
The medium range computer models aren’t showing much in the way of tropical potential across the North Atlantic Ocean over the next week to 10 days. In fact, an experimental tropical cyclone probability model shows negative anomalies across much of the North Atlantic for the next four weeks. Assuming that this forecast is accurate, then we can expect a continuation of little to no tropical activity in the Atlantic.
The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is typically in mid-September, with activity starting to really pick up by late August. While there have been five named systems so far this season, it seems as if most forecasts were calling for more activity by now. (The majority of forecasts are expecting a very active hurricane season)
There’s still a long way to go in the season, which doesn’t end until November 30th, but I’m sure most residents along the East Coast would prefer if the tropics did stay quiet.