Meteorologist Kevin Arnone:
As some towns are still digging out from the blizzard, we have another low pressure quickly approaching from the west! This clipper system will pass to our north during the overnight hours on Thursday and the associated cold front will sure bring with it arctic air! After this system passes, high pressure will build in Friday into Saturday. And don’t look now but we’re watching another system for Sunday/Monday. This one may be a more significant event!
But first we can talk about the clipper system for Thursday into Friday. Light snow will develop 9-11 PM tonight, it will be very scattered. I’ll try not to get too geeky for everyone when I explain the setup! It’s currently 6 PM and temperatures are in the upper 20s, as this Low pressure system moves in, ahead of it we will be warm air advecting. And what I mean by that is, temperatures will be rising due to a southerly flow. However, I do believe the temperatures will remain below freezing throughout the column (atmosphere). The only area that will flirt with temperatures above freezing will be the immediate shoreline, especially SE CT. (Which by the way, was the area that was slammed during the blizzard)
Important in forecasting is rain to snow ratios. On average the ratio is 10-1. Which means, every inch of rain is 10 inches of snow. Since we will be warm air advecting and flirting with temperatures around 32 degrees, the ratio may only be 7 or 8 to 1. What this means is the snow will be the heavy wet snow!
I know this sounds super geeky, but it will be interesting to watch the radar during this event, we could see periods of enhanced snow due to the warmer air moving over the colder water temperatures. Along the same lines as lake effect snow, in this case it’s Long Island Sound effect snow!
Lets talk timing, starts as light snow 9-11 PM, scattered at best. The accumulating snow really doesn’t make it to Connecticut until the morning commute. Perfect timing, 6 AM to 12 PM is a good timeline of when the “heaviest” snow will occur. When it starts to fall, it will stick immediately, the ground temperatures are well below freezing!
So lets talk snow totals, Most of the state will see a general 1-3 inches. Parts of the NW and NE hills will likely be much closer to the 3 inch total and even a few isolated 4 or 5 inches is not out of the question. As we get closer to the shoreline, you folks will be closer to the 1-2 inch range. SE CT will see under an inch, this is due to lower snow ratios and warmer air temperatures that may cause a brief period of mixing.
As far as school delays are concerned. I think we will see scattered delays along the shoreline, most of inland towns will likely have delays and a few scattered closures.
After this system moves though, it will get cold again, and we are watching a system for Sunday/Monday. I will have an update on that Friday!
Make sure you watch New 8!
-Meteorologists Kevin Arnone