Major Arctic outbreak and another storm ahead this week

(WTNH) — The weather in Connecticut looks relatively quiet through the midweek. Enjoy it because there is frigid weather ahead for Thursday and Friday, followed by another storm this weekend. Believe it or not, the storm this weekend looks like more rain than snow, even after the Arctic blast late in the workweek.

ARCTIC EXPRESS
Remember the record-breaking cold in the middle of February? Thankfully, this Arctic outbreak will not be quite that cold, but it is no joke, either. The air temperature will likely reach the single digits in most of Connecticut, and the wind chill will be well below zero early Friday morning.

The cold air comes with strong wind gusts to around 40 mph on Thursday
The cold air comes with strong wind gusts to around 40 mph on Thursday

An Arctic cold front passes by Thursday morning, and the wind may gust over 40 mph. Temperatures will be in the 20s Thursday afternoon, and tumble through the teens into the single digits overnight. Wind chills will be in the single digits to low teens Thursday afternoon, and as cold as -10 to -20 around dawn on Friday.

Low temperatures 10° or colder are nearly certain on Friday morning for most of CT
Low temperatures 10° or colder are nearly certain on Friday morning for most of CT
Projected wind chills Friday morning
Projected wind chills Friday morning

The record low temperature in Bridgeport on Friday (December 16) is 11° set in 1961. Our current forecast is for a low in the single digits – breaking the record. This is likely to be the coldest weather in December at the Shoreline since 2009. If it gets to 8° on Friday it will be the coldest in December at Bridgeport since 12/27/89 when it was 6°! How rare is record cold in December at the Shoreline? Since 1995 there have been two record low temperatures set in Bridgeport in December. Conversely, 17 of the daily record high temperatures for December have been set since 1995.

STORMY WEEKEND
As we saw Sunday night into Monday, the current prevailing storm track is not favorable for all-snow events in Connecticut. That will not change as the next storm system heads our way this weekend. There will be enough cold air around late Friday night into Saturday morning for some snow before any mixing or rain gets involved. A minor to moderate snowfall (inch to few inches) is possible before any changeover. The best chance of steady snow is around dawn on Saturday. It’s still early and that timing could change. The temperature will slowly and steadily rise on Saturday. Expect any snow/mix/rain showers to end Saturday afternoon.

There is a better than 50/50 chance of 3" of snow in the western half of CT Saturday morning
There is a better than 50/50 chance of 3″ of snow in the western half of CT Saturday morning

It will likely stay above freezing Saturday night, but it could be a close call inland. A second surge of precipitation arrives on Sunday, and it should be warm enough for all rain in CT. The temperature may reach the 50s at the Shoreline on Sunday. Another cold shot arrives Sunday night into Monday. The temperature will nosedive into the 20s overnight. A flash-freeze is possible.

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