Snow and rain heading for CT on Thursday

(WTNH)– A quick-hitting storm will bring a wintry mix of snow and rain to Connecticut on Thursday. The best chance of receiving several inches of snow is in Litchfield County, with a minor to moderate accumulation possible in most of the rest of the state. “What’s a minor to moderate accumulation?“, you ask. Basically, anywhere from an inch of snow to around four inches. There is a lower chance of any accumulation along the Shoreline. “Where’s the Shoreline?” you ask? In this case, the area that has the lowest chance of accumulating snow is within 10 miles of I-95.

Storm Timeline

Thursday Morning
Clouds give way to light snow inland, and rain at the Shoreline between 9am-12pm from west to east. A coating of snow is possible in the NW Hills and far northern Hartford and Tolland Counties by noon. Temperature climbs to near 40 Shoreline and low to mid 30s inland. Breeze picks up to 10-25 mph Shoreline.

Thursday Afternoon
The storm strengthens off the New Jersey coast and heads northeast staying towards Eastern Massachusetts. Rain may be heavy at time at the Shoreline, and the rain/snow line moves farther inland as milder air arrives from the south. At this point, the best chance of hanging onto snow instead of rain is in the highest terrain of NW CT. The wind gets stronger at the Shoreline with 30+ mph gusts possible in SE CT. No snow accumulation is expected for most of CT except for the NW hills where there may be 1-2″ in the afternoon.

Thursday Evening
This is the hardest part of the forecast. The storm will race by CT somewhere between Rhode Island and Nantucket. The exact track of the storm is very important since a track farther east brings colder air back faster with a better chance of accumulating snow on the back side of the storm. A track over Buzzards Bay MA or Rhode Island would likely lead to a changeover to snow in some spots, but the precipitation would be winding down as the colder weather arrives.

Most of the time, there is not much wraparound snow with with a storm moving very quickly and so close to Connecticut. For that reason I am leaning to lower snow totals at the end of the storm in Connecticut, but it’s definitely within the realm of possibility that there could be a burst that produces a few inches in a few hours before midnight. The wind will shift to the north and northwest as colder weather returns.

snowfall map11 Snow and rain heading for CT on Thursday

Regardless of whether there is a change from snow to rain in your area, any precipitation will most likely end by around midnight. As far as snow accumulations go, all but the I-95 corridor could see at least an inch of snow, and possibly a few inches depending on when the change back to snow happens and how long the precipitation lasts.

Thursday Night – Friday Morning
Gusty winds bring in colder weather. Watch out for some icy spots, especially inland. The wind may gust to 40 mph.

It’s still a little early to put snowfall totals on a map. As you have just read, there is a lot of uncertainty with this forecast. The best chances of a plowable snow are in NW CT, near Windsor Locks and in northern Tolland County. It looks like mainly or all rain near the Shoreline, and the rest of the state is probably somewhere between a coating and 3″. Obviously, there’s a big difference in what those snow totals mean to you in terms of cleanup and travel, so we’ll be working hard to fine tune the forecast!

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