Soaking rain possible early next week

The storm system that is bringing raw and rainy conditions to the Shoreline and some ice and rain inland will slowly move away on Tuesday. While the weather will be dreary, it does not look like there will be more than a half-inch of rain in most of Connecticut. We’ll take whatever we can get, but that’s not exactly a super-soaker that will do a number on the persistent drought. The weather looks mainly dry from Wednesday afternoon through most of Monday. The best chance of showers in that period is Saturday morning, and it will not be steady rain.

Looking ahead to the middle of next week, there is a good setup for a moderate to heavy rain event in the Northeastern United States. A slow-moving storm system will develop a “negative tilt”, allowing a significant moisture feed off the Atlantic Ocean. There is inherent uncertainty in a 6-7 day forecast, but the early outlook is decent for at least an inch of rain between Monday night and Wednesday of next week. Let’s hope that the computer models are locked onto the pattern, because it’s this type of rain event that will help to pull Connecticut out of the moderate to extreme drought.

Nearly 50/50 odds of 1" of rain is pretty high considering it's still nearly a week away.
Nearly 50/50 odds of 1″ of rain is pretty high considering it’s still nearly a week away.
The European computer model has a high likelihood of at least 0.5" of rain between next Mon-Wed
The European computer model has a high likelihood of at least 0.5″ of rain between next Mon-Wed
Including today's rain, there is a better than 50/50 chance of 2" of rain in the next 10 days in most of CT. That will help the drought conditions.
Including today’s rain, there is a better than 50/50 chance of 2″ of rain in the next 10 days in most of CT. That will help the drought conditions.
The American GFS model also shows a strong signal for steady rain in the Northeast early next week
The American GFS model also shows a strong signal for steady rain in the Northeast early next week

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