End of January thaw in sight, but it’s not around the corner

Sunshine returns on Thursday, and the temperature will jump into the 40s. This January has been unseasonably warm to date, and it will continue running well above normal through most or all of next week. By then, there’s not much January left! So far this month, there have been only four colder than normal days at the Shoreline. It’s highly likely that the total will still be four at the end of next week. The first signs of a cool-down are not until late this month or in early February.

We are still expecting a soaking rain early next week. The timing has moved up to Sunday night through Monday into early Tuesday. Early estimates show a good chance of more than an inch of rain statewide. There may be enough rain to push all of Connecticut above normal for precipitation in January, regardless of what happens in the last week of the month. That’s good news as far as the drought is concerned. Depending on where the center of the storm is, it may become windy, especially at the Shoreline.

The European model rain forecast for early next week. Some models are predicting more than 2" of rain in CT
The European model rain forecast for early next week. Some models are predicting more than 2″ of rain in CT

High temperatures in the 40s are likely most or all days through the end of next week. There may be a couple of days that are at least 15° warmer than normal. The month is already running about 4° above normal, and that number will likely go up in the next week.

So, when is winter returning? The pattern looks interesting late next week with a storm possible near the Eastern Seaboard. It may not be cold enough for snow in CT, but it’s a sign that the pattern may be evolving to something colder for early January. The first few days of February will likely feature a sprawling area of cold high pressure throughout most of the lower 48. It’s unclear if the dry/cold weather will spread east into New England, but it’s a decidedly different look than we’ve seen for most of this month.

You can see the trend towards colder weather in early February
You can see the trend towards colder weather in early February

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