Active weather likely this week

Do not get used to the quiet and seasonable weather that we enjoyed on Monday. The weather for the rest of the week may have more twists and turns than last night’s Super Bowl. The potential exists for four wet/wintry weather systems between Tuesday and Sunday, with the two dry days featuring unseasonably warm and cold conditions. Let’s take it day by day through the end of the week.

TUESDAY
A brief period of freezing rain is possible between 7am-11am in many spots north of the I-95 corridor. The best chance of icy conditions on the roads is in the Litchfield Hills where it will be a little colder and the sub-freezing air may hang around a little longer into the afternoon. It will be all rain at the immediate Shoreline. Most of CT will see raw rain showers in the afternoon. It will be above freezing, but certainly not warm! Highs will only be in the mid to upper 30s.

It will likely not be a big soaker on Tuesday. Rain totals of 0.3-0.6″ are likely. At one point, it looked like this storm had the potential for around an inch of rain, but now it looks closer to a half-inch.

Showers are possible Tuesday night, and we’ll be watching the inland temperature closely to see if it falls to near or below freezing. It will stay above freezing at the Shoreline.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
Chance of a shower early in the day, then VERY mild. If there’s sunshine, a few spots may reach 60°. A conservative high temperature estimate is 50-55° statewide with mostly cloudy skies. A drastic change in the weather is possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A cold front will slide through in the evening, and a storm will develop along that front. The exact track of the storm is questionable, and it means the difference between a few snow showers or flurries in CT and a moderate snow storm. An early estimate is for 1-4″ of snow in CT, with the highest totals at the Shoreline. The timing is from late Wednesday night 3-5 am until early Thursday afternoon. Dry and cold weather is likely from late Thursday into early Friday.

FRIDAY
Friday looks like a pretty quiet, but cold day. Highs may struggle to get to freezing, especially if there is fresh snow on the ground. It will be partly to mostly sunny, with a diminishing breeze in the afternoon.

SATURDAY
A relatively weak disturbance moving from the Great Lakes to the Northeast could bring a minor snowfall to CT. The potential exists for a coating to 2″ of snow between Friday night and Midday Saturday. Highs will be near 40.

SUNDAY
The early outlook for Sunday is for a storm moving into New England bringing mainly rain showers to CT. Highs will be in the 40s.

Guys, heads up, Valentine’s Day is next Tuesday. Right now, it looks dry and seasonable.

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