Tricky temperature forecast for Thursday and Friday

It will definitely be warmer than normal in Connecticut through the end of the workweek into the weekend. The question is “how much warmer than normal?”, especially at the Shoreline. Winter warm-ups are tough to track because of the chilly waters of Long Island Sound and the Atlantic Ocean. Also, the sun angle is higher now than it was a couple of months ago, but it’s still not strong enough to burn through thick low clouds and fog very efficiently. The combined wind direction and potential cloud cover make this a difficult forecast.

The uncertainty in the forecast is illustrated by the wide range of solutions offered by the different computer models that we use to help us forecast. The graphics below show wide-ranging solutions. At this point, we’re cautiously optimistic that the temperature will get above 55° statewide on Thursday and Friday. It’s hard to believe, but the airmass moving into the Northeastern United States produced 80° weather in the Midwest. Because of clouds and our proximity to the ocean, it will not be quite that warm in Connecticut.

mw dma highs tom Tricky temperature forecast for Thursday and Friday

NAM 3km - a big difference between NY and CT, much cooler in CT!
NAM 3km – a big difference between NY and CT, much cooler in CT!
GFS model - not that warm!
GFS model – not that warm!
Hi-res Canadian model...warm inland, and cooler in SE CT
Hi-res Canadian model…warm inland, and cooler in SE CT

33 Tricky temperature forecast for Thursday and Friday 24 Tricky temperature forecast for Thursday and Friday 14 Tricky temperature forecast for Thursday and Friday

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