The Tale of Two Patterns

key northeast seasonal temp  The Tale of Two Patterns

Meteorologist Kevin Arnone

This spring-like weather we’ve been seeing is sure making Connecticut residents wonder if winter is really over. Spring like temperatures will continue in this 8 day forecast with 60s expected inland both today right through Saturday.

Even Monday through the end of next week features upper 40s to mid 50s! Normally our highs this time of the year are in the low 40s. The only day that features temps near the normal in the 8 day forecast is Sunday the 26th, but even that is above normal by a few degrees. We usually don’t see temps in the 60s until the end of April.

The graphic above shows where all the warmth is located through the first few days of March. Most of the eastern half of the United States will likely see above normal temperatures. The west coast is hogging all the colder air, especially Alaska and far NW United States. This is where all the well below average temperatures are likely to be seen over the next 10 days or so.

mw am temperature trend shoreline icons2 The Tale of Two Patterns

But are we really done with winter?

March can be a very interesting month here in the Northeast. Spring like temperatures can be followed by winter like chill and accumulating snow or vice versa. I’ve seen it several times. I even remember once when I was a student at Peck Place Elementary school in Orange, Connecticut. One day in March we were outside at recess playing kickball in shorts and short sleeves. Yes, you guessed it! The next day was a snow day with several inches of snow.

Bridgeport averages a little more than 5 inches of snow in March, and Windsor Locks averages just over 8 inches. So you’re probably asking yourself, will this unseasonable weather pattern continue through the rest of March?

One of our longer range computer models, the CFS sure doesn’t think so! The model is warm in early March, which I agree, but gradually turns a touch cooler and even more active towards the end of the first week in March into the middle of the month. The historically more accurate long range model, the Euro, doesn’t really budge temperatures too much. Sure, it keeps the northeast active when it comes to rain/snow events but the overall temperature pattern stays relatively mild.

The Climate Prediction Center is leaning more towards what the CFS has to say. Below average temperatures across much of the eastern United States during the time frame between March 4th-17th. So if you’re a winter fan, there’s still hope!

Thanks for reading!

Meteorologist Kevin Arnone 

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key northeast seasonal temp 2 The Tale of Two Patterns

 

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