A very warm February will end with another mild day on Tuesday. March begins with near-record warmth on Wednesday, but at the same time, there is a severe weather threat for part of the Northeastern United States, including western CT. The setup does not look quite as good as it was this weekend when a tornado tore through Goshen and Conway, MA.
A few showers are possible on Tuesday, but we are not expecting any t-storms. The first threat of t-storms is late Tuesday night as a warm front moves through the northeast. Don’t be shocked if you hear the rumble of thunder late at night. Highs will be in the 50s on Tuesday.
Wednesday could be an active day in CT. The Storm Prediction Center has placed western CT (west of I-91) in a 5% risk of severe thunderstorms. Technically, that means there is a 5% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of any given location. It’s a relatively low threat, but something to watch closely. Yes, it’s unusual to have a severe storm threat in New England on the first day of March. That tornado in Massachusetts on Saturday was the first confirmed February tornado in Massachusetts history. Based on the weather setup, the main threat seems to be damaging wind from any t-storms that roll through CT. The timing of the showers/storms is difficult. It’s best to check in with News8 throughout the day, and also download the StormTeam8 app for your phone.
In spite of the clouds and showers, we may have another record-breaking day in CT. The record highs are relatively low for March 1, and there is a pretty good chance that at least the inland record falls on Wednesday. Based on the timing of the cold front, it could be close to 60° at 12:01 am Thursday, and that would put Thursday in the books as another very warm day. However, a gusty wind will drop the temperature into the 30s by late in the afternoon.
All of this warm weather over the past few weeks is contributing to major snow melting in Northern New England. As a result, the Connecticut River is cresting tonight near flood stage in Hartford. Flood stage is 16.0 feet, and it is expected to crest at close to that level, leading to minor flooding in the lowest lying areas from Hartford to Glastonbury to Wethersfield and Plymouth.