Increasing odds of significant storm next week

(WTNH) — Less than 24 hours after record warmth, a nuisance March snow event hits Connecticut early Friday. Record-breaking cold arrives for second straight March weekend. However, the main headline in the 8-Day forecast may well be the potential for a good old fashioned Nor’easter Tuesday into Wednesday.

I’ve been talking about an Ides of March snow storm since last week, and the setup is still ripe for a significant East Coast storm Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. The potential storm is still about 120 hours away, but the European computer model ensemble is already projecting a 70 percent chance of at least 3″ of snow in CT, and a 50 percent chance of 6″+.

There is still a lot that can change in the next 4-5 days. One of the keys to the storm’s development will be “phasing” of the northern and southern branches of the jet stream. Basically, a storm in the Midwest will merge with a storm off the Eastern Seaboard. If and where that happens is very important to the forecast. If the jet stream phases south of New England, then it’s probably game on for a big storm.

It will be unseasonably cold in CT early next week, and there should be enough cold air around for a mainly or all snow event. Rain could get involved if the storm strengthens a little farther west than currently projected.

You can bet we’ll be turning our attention to this storm after Friday’s nuisance event.

gfs mslp pcpn frzn neus 20 Increasing odds of significant storm next week
GFS model has a whopper storm for New England
gem mslp pcpn frzn neus 21 Increasing odds of significant storm next week
Canadian model also projecting a blockbuster
jma z500 mslp us 7 Increasing odds of significant storm next week
Japanese JMA model showing a snowy scenario for New England
eps slp lows neng 23 Increasing odds of significant storm next week
EPS ensemble members – some are too close for snow and there would be some mixing. Others are too far away for a big storm, but most are in the sweet spot for snow.
gefs ptype ens neng 23 Increasing odds of significant storm next week
GEFS members – many show significant snow storm for New England

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