Wet April may give way to soggy start to May

A midweek soaker should be enough to push the April rain totals to above normal for all of Connecticut. While patience is wearing thin for those who want to get outside and enjoy some nice spring weather, the long-range outlook does not offer too much promise for lengthy dry stretches in early May.

eps qpf 2 neng 61 Wet April may give way to soggy start to May
The European model projects at least a 70% chance of more than 2 inches of rain in CT in the next two weeks.
khvn 2017042412 eps precip 360 Wet April may give way to soggy start to May
The European ensemble forecast predicts about 4″ of rain in New Haven by May 8. That is about twice the normal amount. Keep in mind, that is just one computer model run. It also predicts close to 2″ of rain from this week’s storm.
khvn 2017042412 gefs qpf 384 Wet April may give way to soggy start to May
The American (GFS) model features about 3 inches of rain in New Haven by May 8

 

Both the European (ECMWF) and American (GFS) computer models show near to above normal precipitation in the last week of April and first week of May. We know that the bulk of the rain this week will come on Tuesday and Wednesday. Looking at next week, the best chances for rain seem to be around May 2 (Tuesday) and May 5 (Friday).

814prcp new Wet April may give way to soggy start to May
NOAA outlook shows the wet pattern in the Eastern US during the first week of May

The normal amount of rain in late-April through early-May is just shy of two inches. Most of the computer models project more than two inches of rain in the next two weeks. This dreary pattern may be a pain for athletes, landscapers, painters, etc., but it’s helpful for the drought. The severe drought in CT ended last week, and there may be more improvement over the next month.

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